Florida Market Update: Florida CRE Fundamentals Continue to Stabilize in 2026
By Andrew Pott, Director of Acquisitions
Multifamily is the most talked-about story. Miami leads the state at roughly 6.6% vacancy with year-over-year rents still positive, buoyed by continued high-income in-migration and the slowest new supply growth the market has seen in a decade. Orlando (~7.8% vacancy), Tampa (~10.3%), and Jacksonville (~12.2%) are deeper in the cycle, with concessions common in newly delivered product and effective rents declining modestly year-over-year. Nationally, apartment vacancy is expected to peak in 2026 and tighten into 2027 as the construction pipeline clears; Florida’s better-located assets are already showing signs of that stabilization.
Industrial has cooled from its pandemic-era highs but remains one of the more fundamentally sound sectors in the state. Jacksonville’s industrial vacancy surged to a range of 9–11% as speculative deliveries hit the market, up from roughly 5% a year prior, but the pipeline has effectively closed, with under one million square feet expected to deliver for the remainder of 2026. Miami industrial continues to outperform, with lease spreads among the widest in the South at approximately $3.50 per square foot, a signal of persistent demand relative to available supply.
Office has stabilized more than many expected. Florida’s market is bifurcated: Miami commands over $40 per square foot in asking rents on Class A product, buoyed by corporate relocations from firms like Palantir, Wells Fargo’s Wealth Management division, Apple, and Amazon, which recently signed the largest office lease ever recorded in Wynwood at 50,300 square feet. High-quality, well-leased product in Florida’s primary markets is attracting renewed investor interest; older suburban commodity product remains challenged.
Across all of these property types, the financing environment is evolving. The 10-year Treasury sits near 4.45% and the 5-year at 4.08% as of early May – yields that have drifted back toward recent highs on renewed Middle East tensions and a Fed that held rates unchanged at its April 29 meeting. For stabilized, income-producing assets, one of the most compelling financing solutions in today’s market is a life company correspondent program that Largo Capital accesses directly: non-recourse permanent financing from $5 million to $50 million, fixed rates at 165–180 basis points over Treasury, LTV up to 70%, amortization up to 40 years, interest-only available, and a 1.25x minimum DSCR. The program covers multifamily, industrial, office, retail, and self-storage with rate-lock at application and nationwide coverage favoring primary and secondary markets. For borrowers who have worked through a value-add cycle, or for acquisitions where the basis is right, this program offers long-duration, non-recourse capital to well-positioned sponsors ready to hold.
