Key Insights from the 2025 RealCapital Conference in Toronto: Refinancing Trends, Evolving Asset Preferences, and Shifts in Canada-US Relations
Written by Elliot Higgins, Analyst
Largo attended the RealCapital Conference hosted by Canada Real Estate Forums, where we engaged with lenders and observed insightful presentations. A common theme of cautious optimism emerged, reflecting expectations for the year ahead, despite the uncertainty in the Canadian lending landscape. Below are the key takeaways from the conference.
1. Wave of Refinancing Requests in 2025
Experts predict a significant wave of refinancing requests in 2025, driven primarily by deals made at low interest rates in 2020, according to the 2025 Canadian Real Estate Lenders’ Report. Moreover, this surge is accompanied by improved lender sentiment, with increased capital allocations and plans for higher deal volumes across all asset classes. As a result, the market is expected to be highly competitive. Specifically, 70% of lenders plan to engage in active bidding, while 76% aim to increase their origination volume. This suggests not only increased liquidity but also tightening credit spreads. Ultimately, this signals Canada’s recovery from a period of stalled growth.
2. Renewed Appetite Across Asset Classes
Lender preferences for asset classes are evolving. Retail, industrial, and multifamily properties continue to be favored, with lenders increasing their budgets for these assets. However, there is also a renewed interest in office assets, particularly in Class A, well-located properties, although suburban office spaces still face challenges. In addition, the hospitality sector is gaining traction, driven by a favorable exchange rate for U.S. travelers. This trend positions hospitality as a leading alternative asset class in the market.
3. Canada – US Relations and Economic Recovery
In December 2024, leading economist Benjamin Tal shared that Canada’s recovery would largely depend on the effects of the Trump administration. The first three months of 2025 have been marked by tariffs and a combative stance towards Canada. Nevertheless, speakers at the conference noted that these challenges present an opportunity for Canada to address policy inefficiencies and inter-provincial trade barriers. Moreover, the change in leadership in Canada was seen as a potential catalyst for a decade of growth following a prolonged period of stagnation. While tariffs are expected to raise import prices, experts highlighted opportunities for strengthening domestic trade relations and stimulating growth prospects.
Shifts in the Canadian Retail Market
The Canadian retail landscape is undergoing significant shifts, as evidenced by two iconic companies taking vastly different paths. Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC), a historic department store chain, has announced plans for a full liquidation of its Canadian operations under CCAA. This move has met strong opposition from joint venture partner RioCan, which is working to protect its substantial real estate holdings. Consequently, the potential closure of these anchor stores could pose significant challenges for Canadian malls, leading to higher vacancy rates and reduced foot traffic.
On the other hand, Canadian Tire Corporation is investing $2 billion in its “True North” strategy. This initiative focuses on enhancing omnichannel capabilities, optimizing supply chains, and streamlining operations. Furthermore, it includes selective store closures and substantial investments in digital and logistical infrastructure, while also prioritizing shareholder returns and debt reduction. These contrasting strategies reflect diverging responses to the evolving pressures of the modern retail market.
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